Ken: It’s taken a week to tally the votes, but now it is official: Republicans have flipped the U.S. House of representatives, albeit by a slender majority. Not everything that they hoped for, but it means the Queen of the House is gone, and likely gone as well are the probes and subpoenas for the Trump team. The Senate is still Democrat but gaining partial control of Congress proves the GOP isn’t on the path to extinction … yet.
During the week, there have been a blizzard of op-eds in print and pundit commentaries on the tube about why the “red wave” predicted by the polls wasn’t an enormous tsunami. Why didn’t it seem to matter that according to polls that about 75% of citizens thought the country was going in the wrong direction, and Biden’s approval rating was under 40%.
One opinion was that the Democrat good showing was largely due to the young voters aged 18 to 29 who voted almost 70% Democrat. As a voting bloc it looks like the kids have been influenced by the left-leaning public-school teachers and the profs of academia. Could it be one factor is an expression of gratitude for the Biden gift of $20,000 loan forgiveness?
Another political scholar opined that the abortion issue really was a much more potent issue than anyone thought. Leaning heavily on abortion-related TV ads, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker successfully self-financed his campaign, spending close to $150 million. Many experts believed the strong presence of former president Donald Trump was a negative factor, and that resulted in energizing the loyal Democrat populous. So, what happened to “it’s the economy, stupid?”
Joe: I somewhat take the position of what the Wall Street Journal concluded. The elections showed that clinging to 2020 election denial, as Trump has done is a loser’s game. Republican candidates who took that position all lost. Plus, at these midterms, given their backgrounds and personalities, Trump’s choice of candidates doomed what should have been for them a midterm victory. Biden has not been that popular and as you have mentioned, it’s the economy, stupid. Trump is now a presidential candidate for 2024. With all his baggage, what is your view on his announcement?
Ken: The idea that Trump has become toxic for voters has many supporters. However, there is a twist. In an essay this week from the Associated Press, it was stated that according to the Department of Justice, “Trump criminal probes will proceed.” It has always appeared that the point of all the Democrat-initiated investigations of Donald Trump has been to prevent his running again for high office. But now, if he really is poisonous, why not let him remain a (negative?) force in the GOP for the 2024 election?
My own theory of the Republican wave becoming a ripple is that the voting process has changed. Under the COVID-related rules changes, with early voting and mail-in ballots, non-charismatic Biden pulled 12 million or so more votes in 2020 than the golden-throated Obama in 2016. Vote harvesting being legal in more than half the states, many voters who otherwise might not show up to vote can receive help and encouragement in voting without leaving home.
The strategy obviously works best in the high-density population centers which tend to be Democratic strongholds, thus disproportionately adding Democrat votes. Also, the polls may be further skewed due to the difficulty reaching that demographic. All according to the new rules — still one citizen, one vote. It’s unclear what countermeasures might be effective for the Republicans.
Joe: There are no effective countermeasures for the Republicans the next two years. Trump is one of their presidential candidates, who like a guest coming for dinner, doesn’t know when to leave or refuses to go home. He must remain a candidate. It assists in shielding him from criminal indictments in the classified documents investigation and the Jan. 6 investigation.
Most lawyers would have told him to announce a run for the presidency, if only for the reason to try to save himself and give him potential escape routes. Like the tax code there are loopholes and exit doors. His candidacy has an impact on whether prosecutors decide to indict and would probably also affect how a judge or jury would resolve the case, if it ended up in court.
Trump’s attorney, general William Barr, said none of this may make a difference. A few days ago, Barr told CNN, referring to the question of stolen documents, “I personally think they probably have the basis for legitimately indicting [Trump]. … They have the case.”
Ken: At this point, I think that most of the Republicans are ready to move on. I am. One and done for The Donald. It is the Democrats who are obsessed with Mr. Trump, and that obsession might result in their undoing. But as it plays out it will be amusing theater. For now, control of the House is a victory to be savored by the GOP.
Joe: Well, I agree with you. It will be amusing theater as everything plays out particularly in 2023. It is unclear whether the Special Counsel ultimately seeks charges against Trump. Trump is not going to drop out of any Republican primary for president even if he is indicted. So, we could have Trump running for president under indictment or even behind bars.
If the Republican primary includes multiple candidates, Trump could end up as the winner, with the most votes. The Republican Party then must decide whether to make Trump its nominee. It’s not mandatory that they do so. It looks like there will be much to write about in the days ahead.
Dr. Ken Johnston has been an ENT surgeon in Kankakee since 1976. He has been on several community boards and has been involved with clubs and organizations. He has lived in Bourbonnais since 1981. He can be contacted through the Daily Journal at editors@daily-journal.com or directly at Ken_Johnston@comcast.net.
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